L’ABOUTISSEMENT DE LA ZLE ENTRE L’ALGERIE ET L’UE, QUEL IMPACT SUR L’ECONOMIE ALGERIENNE ?

Abstract

In our study, we quantitatively evaluate the impact of the completion of the free trade area between Algeria and the European Union scheduled for 2020, on the Algerian economy through the construction of a computable static general equilibrium model. Our CGE is developed from a social accounting matrix (SAM) disaggregated and adapted to the Algerian economy, built on the basis of data from the National statistics Office NSO, and which is disaggregated into 19 sectors. The results of our simulations highlight the impact of the abolition of tariffs on European products on the main macroeconomic aggregates (GDP components), but also the sectoral impacts will be analyzed in order to understand the reallocation of resources to non-tradable sectors or to the hydrocarbon sector (exportable). The results reflect the need for arbitration between the loss of short-term revenue, the decline in GDP and welfare on one side, and the support of investment spending that can have a positive return in the long term.